It’s more about learning that it is about Time, right?
I came across this Johan Galtung fellow while perusing something unrelated, and discovered that he is the latest in a long line of prognosticators who use past behaviour to predict future likelihoods. The short of it is that Galtung’s model puts the fall of the US Empire (not the Republic – at least the continental USA will survive, as did the UK) at about the year 2020 CE. There are plenty of alternate theories and criticisms. I first came across this idea in depth with Oswald Spengler’s the Decline of the West.
Summing it up (hard to do, it’s quite complex, and I read a simplification of that):
an empire…has a culture of legitimizing a structure of unequal exchange between center and periphery
* economically, between exploiters and exploited, as inequity;
* militarily, between killers and victims, as enforcement;
* politically, between dominators and dominated, as repression;
* culturally, between alienators and alienated, as conditioning. Read the rest of this entry »